How to best forecast the future

Seems that Tetlock's continued his investigation into how people think beyond his earlier, rather prominent book on assessing expertise in The Good Judgement Project. Here's a bit of advice based on that research from Tim Harford:

... the thinking style most associated with making better forecasts was something psychologists call “actively open-minded thinking”. A questionnaire to diagnose this trait invites people to rate their agreement or disagreement with statements such as, “Changing your mind is a sign of weakness.” The project found that successful forecasters aren’t afraid to change their minds, are happy to seek out conflicting views and are comfortable with the notion that fresh evidence might force them to abandon an old view of the world and embrace something new.