How well do you think that Windows Vista will succeed?

It's getting somewhat closer to the next Microsoft operating system release, and I was wondering how you think that this product will perform. I'm currently on the search for a new laptop, and have seen stuff like the following in a number of places:

But investing in Windows Vista doesn’t mean just paying for the OS. All reviews of the Beta versions that Microsoft has provided for Windows Vista are unanimous in their conclusion: in order to make use of this OS, a customer will need at least 2 GB of RAM, a graphics board of at least 256 MB, a DVD-RW and a hard disk of at least 120 GB. These are specifications that don’t quite reach the finest standards of today’s technology and don’t set a standard of their own.

Microsoft's Vista Premium Capable minimum specs are listed as requiring a minimum gigabyte of memory and 128 megs video memory, and in the past Microsoft has listed minimum specs that are a little too low and have resulted in poor performance.

If I were to buy a new desktop I would have no trouble meeting such requirements, but it gets a little expensive to do the same in laptop form. And, as well, I'm not even sure if I want to upgrade to Windows Vista. Lately internet video-conferencing stuff has kept me tied to windows, but Linux is improving in that regard and Mac OS Tiger is another possible upgrade route. (Apple also recently updated their Macbooks).


The reason for the higher system requirements is that the desktop is now rendered using DirectX. Also, the Aero Glass theme needs more power to render the translucency effect. Under-powered machines will still be able to run Vista just fine with the glass turned off.

Personally I'm going to be holding back for a while, for three reasons:
1. To see what the reviewers think of Vista.
2. To see how bad the bugs are.
3. I'm wary of the changes to the product activation.

I'll want to run Vista Ultimate and I've heard you only get 10 activations. IIRC there's also no volume-license version of Ultimate, and even if there was those have activation now too. I like having the freedom to reformat my computer and not have to worry about activation problems.

Mac OS has had an OpenGL desktop for quite a few years now - Microsoft doesn't necessarily need a top-end graphics card to handle something like that.

Isn't Vista Ultimate something that is supposed to be only available to Enterprise customers?

Nope, volume licensing won't even be available for Ultimate.