Who supports which US presidential candidate?

One thing I find worthwhile is comparing the results of pollsters to the positions of pundits and journalists. Had seen the following figures on Bernie Sanders before, but this now includes a broader range of candidates for the sake of comparison:

I think that #BlackLivesMatter severely hurt Sanders chances of becoming president though.

Random links

Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds
The article is a couple of months old but I think this quote still stands out: "A 2014 study by the International Monetary Fund’s Prakash Loungani found that not one of 49 recessions suffered around the world in 2009 had been predicted by the consensus of economists a year earlier. Loungani previously reported that only two of the 60 recessions of the 1990s had been anticipated a year in advance."
Ontario government rolling back Liberal-era student-aid reform
One thing that Ford did of which I strongly approve - allowing students to opt out of paying fees to student activist groups. In my view they've tended to amplify the already-loudest voices on campuses.
More Women in Tech? Evidence from a Field Experiment Addressing Social Identity
"When we correct the perception that women cannot succeed in technology by providing role models, information on returns and access to a female network, application rates double and the self-selection patterns change. Analysis of those patterns suggests that identity considerations act as barriers to entering the technology sector and that some high-cognitive skill women do not apply because of their high identity costs."

Mister Rogers on good and bad people

Sometimes people are good, and they do just what they should. But the very same people who are good sometimes are the very same people who are bad sometimes. It's funny but it's true. Its the same isn't it, for me and . . . - Fred Rogers

Random links

Half of the UK public believe that the gender pay gap will never close
"The research also highlights the amount of misunderstanding that exists among the public around what the gender pay gap is. A sizable majority (71%) of the public choose the wrong definition – that the gender pay gap is “the difference in pay between men and women doing the same job”. This compares to just one in five (20%) that picked the correct answer – that it is “the difference between average earnings for men and women regardless of what job they do.”" It seems to me that this is less a matter of the public being wrong than of capture by special interests.
Women's Political Engagement Under Quota-Mandated Female Representation Evidence From a Randomized Policy Experiement
"Do affirmative action measures for women in politics change the way constituents view and interact with their female representatives? A subnational randomized policy experiment in Lesotho with single-member districts reserved for female community councilors provides causal evidence to this question. Using survey data, I find that having a quota-mandated female representative either has no effect on or actuallyreduces several dimensions of women’s self-reported engagement with local politics."
Why don’t women peer review as often as men? Fewer invites and RSVPs, researchers say
The researchers "found the gender discrepancies stemmed from women – of all levels of seniority — receiving fewer invitations to review (both from male and female authors). And when women get their invites, they say “no” more often." Those two sentences might be connected somehow.

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