What are your thoughts on the Egyptian situation?

There's been a lot about these riots in Egypt in the news the last while. I also know a bunch of Egyptians who are quite excited about this movement. Yet I'm not sure that I share their sense of optimism. Here's one article that seems to articulate some of what I thinking:

What if the most likely alternatives are either an Arab-nationalist dictatorship or an Islamist dictatorship? First, the moderate democratic forces are weak, disorganized, and few in number compared with their two rivals. Second, in Egypt especially, many of the “moderate democrats” are quite extremist, even if they are leftist or radical-nationalist rather than Islamist in doctrine.

We also have some precedents: Iran’s revolution (Islamism); Palestinian elections (Hamas); Lebanese democracy (Hezbollah); Algerian free elections (bloody civil war); Turkish democracy (Islamist regime at present). This pattern cannot be ignored, there are reasons for it.

- Cold Water on the Frenzy: Cautions about Egypt