I mentioned recently that a startup company is tackling lunar mining. Today the Globe and Mail published an article with a completely ludicrous way to estimate cost-effectiveness of this approach. How'd they do it?
Their calculations are based on Nasa’s forthcoming OSIRIS-REx mission, which aims to launch a probe in 2016 to pluck samples from an asteroid called 1999 RQ36 and bring them to Earth.
... Nasa hopes it will be home by 2023, with a couple of ounces of dirt. By then, the cost will have reached $1-billion - made up of $800-million for the vehicle, plus another $200-million for the rocket launch.
Some problems:
- Exploratory missions aren't the same as mining missions.
- It's probably a fair bit more expensive to build something like this the first time around rather than the Nth.
- They neglected to actually read the business plan - which involves towing asteroids into lunar orbit (which apparently doesn't have massive fuel requirements) and then supplying NASA as a start. Apparently current costs to NASA are about $20,000 per litre of water brought up from earth.
There's an interesting study in which Planetary Resources participated a while back. Estimated cost to bring a 500,000 kg asteroid into lunar orbit was roughly $2.6 billion. $2.6 billion / 500,000 = $5200 / kg. Compare to $1 billion / 0.057 kg = $1.76E10 / kg (the figures used in this economic "analysis"). Notice any slight difference between the figures?
One cool potential application of (comparatively) cheap resources in orbit might be the construction of space-based solar power - here's one interesting study of the possibilities there that I managed to sneak into my Ph.D. candidacy proposal. (Not quite sure why I tend to be relatively cynical about a lot of current solar installations but relatively positive towards probably crazier ideas like space-based solar power or paving over the Sahara with solar panels).
If they manage to drag together resources in orbit, think also about what possibilities an automated orbital manufacturing facility might have. Could you build future asteroid collectors at lower cost in orbit using the resources from previously captured asteroids?