How to best forecast the future

Seems that Tetlock's continued his investigation into how people think beyond his earlier, rather prominent book on assessing expertise in The Good Judgement Project. Here's a bit of advice based on that research from Tim Harford:

... the thinking style most associated with making better forecasts was something psychologists call “actively open-minded thinking”. A questionnaire to diagnose this trait invites people to rate their agreement or disagreement with statements such as, “Changing your mind is a sign of weakness.” The project found that successful forecasters aren’t afraid to change their minds, are happy to seek out conflicting views and are comfortable with the notion that fresh evidence might force them to abandon an old view of the world and embrace something new.

Random links

For Lent, can man live by brew alone?
"Three hundred or four hundred years ago, a group of Paulaner monks in a Bavarian region had made a stronger beer in a town called Einbeck and they called it bock. The monks started making a stronger beer, a double beer, called doppelbock ... The story goes the monks would give up eating and literally would drink this 'liquid bread' to sustain them through their Lenten fast." I can see Lent becoming somewhat more popular. This also reminds me of the Guiness Diet episode of Glutton for Punishment.
Human Poop-Powered Bus Hits UK Roads
"This “Bio-bus” runs on biomethane gas, which is produced from the treatment of human sewage and food that is unsuitable for human consumption. ... Just one person’s annual food and sewage waste is enough to fuel the bus for 60 kilometers"
Man eats sugar-heavy diet for 60 days, receives shocking diagnosis
The interesting angle per the guy on this experimental diet: "I had no soft drink, chocolate, ice cream or confectionery ... All the sugars that I was eating were found in perceived healthy foods, so low-fat yogurts, and muesli bars, and cereals, and fruit juices, sports drinks ... these kind of things that often parents would give their kids thinking they’re doing the right thing."
Pro football player leaves behind $37 million contract to become a farmer
Call me crazy but I'd advise more than just watching a few YouTube videos before making a jump like this guy did.

Talking to terrorists

This talk at Google was rather interesting:

The speaker there has had a rather interesting career path looking up to the publication of his book Talking to Terrorists: How to End Armed Conflicts. Here's his Amazon author profile:

Jonathan Powell worked for the Foreign Office for fifteen years until, in 1994, Tony Blair poached him to join his 'kitchen cabinet' as his Chief of Staff. After Labour achieved its landslide victory in 1997, Powell spent ten years in government talking to the leaders of the IRA in safe houses across Belfast, Derry and Dublin. Since leaving Number 10 he has worked with a Geneva-based NGO, negotiating between governments and terrorist groups in Europe, Asia and Africa, and has now established his own NGO, InterMediate, to continue this work. InterMediate is already active in six countries.

It's a bit different from the highly censorous attitude that seems to have been visible of late - with the irony of the 50th anniversary of Berkeley's Free Speech Movement wherein students pushed for free speech against administrators to now student groups pushing for administrators to impose censorship amongst other similar occurrences.

I personally think that a lot of the actions being done may push people a direction other than the ones that the pro-censorship crowd may wish them to go. The post The Problem of “Social Justice Elitism” containing the reflections of a Harvard Divinity School student on what happened when a neo-Nazi wound up debating him and some of his fellow students at a party where their paths intersected:

I woke up the next morning feeling frustrated with my fellow divinity students. What did it mean that we spent so much time in seminar challenging each other over increasingly subtle concessions to the kyriarchy, but retreated when confronted by an honest-to-goodness Neo-Nazi? What if well-meaning academics had made this Neo-Nazi feel vilified and ashamed, driving him into the arms of the white supremacists?

... true discussion about social justice is conjunctive rather than disjunctive. That is, it creates connections by promoting an understanding of the experience of the other. By contrast, the rhetoric of social justice elitism divides people by assessing the degree to which they contribute to a system of injustice. Second, while sincere dialogue about social justice requires courage, social justice elitism rarely involves risk. Speaking truth to power is a frightening undertaking. So is talking about social justice in a way that leverages one’s privilege or runs the risk of being misunderstood.

Random links

Want to Get Ahead? Stop Trying So Hard to Get Ahead.
"though they’re overrepresented at the bottom, Grant’s most interesting finding is that givers also climb to the top. You’ll find givers massed at the two ends of the spectrum, with takers and matchers in the middle."
A shocking number
"Black Americans’ median net worth is less than 5 percent that of white Americans ... black South Africans under apartheid had a median net worth about 6.8 percent that of white South Africans. Repeating: Black Americans are worse off relative to their white countrymen than black South Africans under apartheid were to theirs"
Tyler Perry Star Must Stay 2 YARDS Away From Hubby ... After Alleged Death Threats
"The judge didn't want to order Smith to leave the house ... at least not until there's a full hearing. So Douglas got his restraining order ... even though a 2-yard stay away sounds kind of ridiculous."
Australians and New Zealanders should be free to live and work in UK, report says
Canada's in the proposal as well. If adopted would make things a bit more EU-like amongst the UK and bits of the Commonwealth. Sounds good to me.

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